Investor Factsheet • BUS 348 • Rollins College • April 2026
HIP ESG Scores and Post-M&A Performance
Among Chinese Serial Acquirers (2016–2026)
Among Chinese Serial Acquirers (2016–2026)
Difference-in-DifferencesDifference-in-differences (DiD): a statistical method comparing how outcomes change for a treated group vs. a control group, isolating the effect of the event. • A-Share Listed Firms • Authored by Logan Lisowski • Advisor: Prof. Marc Sardy
Performance Gap
2.14pp
HIGH vs. LOW ESG CAARCAAR (Cumulative Average Abnormal Return): the sum of daily abnormal returns over a 5-day event window [-2,+2], averaged across firms.
1,488
ISINs Screened
60
Serial Acquirers
308+
M&A Transactions
p=0.015p-value of 0.015 - there is only a 1.5% chance of seeing this result by random luck. Below 5% is the standard bar for "statistically significant."
DiD Significance
Tier Performance
5-Day CAAR by HIP ESG Tier
High ESG (0.536 avg)
20 firms, 83 deals • Market reward for ESG-aligned acquirers
+1.33%
CAAR
Medium ESG (0.373 avg)
20 firms, 139 deals • Near-neutral market reaction
+0.33%
CAAR
Low ESG (0.163 avg)
20 firms, 86 deals • Negative announcement reaction
-0.81%
CAAR
Visual Comparison
5-day cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR), event window [-2,+2]
DiD Regression
Panel Fixed-Effects Results
| Term | Coeff. | p-value |
|---|---|---|
| Intercept (b₀b₀ (b-zero) is the baseline level when every other variable is set to zero - the average return for low-ESG firms before the deal.) | -0.812 | 0.031* |
| Post (b₁b₁ measures how much the outcome shifts after the event for the comparison group - the post-deal change for low-ESG acquirers.) | +0.341 | 0.214 |
| Treated (b₂b₂ measures the pre-existing difference between treated and control groups - how much high-ESG firms already differed before the deal.) | +0.892 | 0.088 |
| Post x Treated (b₃b₃ (b-three) is the difference-in-differences interaction coefficient: the extra change for the treated group (high-ESG firms) caused by the event, beyond what the control group experienced. This is the headline causal estimate.) | +1.700**Two asterisks: significant at the 5% level (p < 0.05). The conventional bar for "statistically significant." | 0.015 |
R² = 0.207R-squared = 0.207 means the model explains 20.7% of the variation in returns across firms. For cross-sectional finance research, that is a meaningful share. | N = 360 obs | Industry + Year FE
Non-Parametric Validation
| Test | Stat | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Kruskal-WallisKruskal-Wallis test: a non-parametric way to check whether three or more groups have different distributions. Works even when the data is not normally distributed. | H=36.18** | p < 0.001p-value below 0.1% - probability of this happening by chance is less than 1 in 1,000. Extremely strong evidence the effect is real. |
| One-Way ANOVAOne-Way ANOVA: tests whether the averages of multiple groups differ more than you would expect by chance. | F=38.66** | p < 0.001 |
| Placebo (N=1,000) | 0 / 1,000 | No replication |
Sectors Covered
Industrials
Technology
Financials
Consumer Disc.
Materials
Energy
Healthcare
7 sectors confirmed; no significant sector-level moderation of ESG-return relationship (H7 null, p=0.34p-value of 0.34 - a 34% chance of seeing this by luck alone. Above 5% means there is no reliable effect; the result is "null.").
Hypothesis Scorecard
Supp.
H1: HIGH tier generates positive CAAR (+1.33%)
Supp.
H2: LOW tier generates negative CAAR (-0.81%)
Supp.
H3: Significant HIGH/LOW gap (2.14 pp, p=0.015)
Supp.
H4: DiD b₃ positive and significant (+1.700**)
Supp.
H5: Non-parametric tests confirm (KW, ANOVAANOVA (Analysis of Variance): tests whether group means differ more than would be expected by chance.)
Supp.
H6: Placebo validates causal interpretation
Null
H7: No sector moderation (F=1.12, p=0.34)
Null
H8: No temporal trend in ESG-return relationship
Robustness & Data
Sample Size
1,488
ISINs screened from A-share universe; 60 serial acquirers retained
Transactions
308+
M&A deals from CSMAR / Wind; 3+ per acquirer threshold
Panel Obs.
360
Usable observations after HIP score availability filter
Placebo Test
0 / 1,000
Random tier assignments that replicate b₃ = +1.700b₃ = +1.700: the difference-in-differences interaction coefficient. High-ESG firms gained an extra 1.70 percentage points in returns after their deals beyond what low-ESG firms gained.
Key Implication
HIP ESG scores function as a statistically significant, economically meaningful signal for predicting post-acquisition market performance among Chinese serial acquirers. ESG integration should be treated as a material screening criterion in Chinese M&A evaluation frameworks.